Saturday, 5 October 2013

Race down to 3 for 2

Judging by the recent news, the UMNO V-P race is now largely 3 candidates for 2 positions.

Incumbent Dato Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has effectively sown up one of the 3 positions. Up and down the country he is the front runner, with the UMNO grassroots applauding his tough no-nonsense policy on fighting crime and political opponents.

Wednesday, 2 October 2013

Najib can't meet Obama

Was quite surprised at the speed at which President Obama dropped his plan on meeting the PM in Malaysia. This perhaps is a bit of gamesmanship because Najib has refused to sign TPPA. So now Obama can dangle the carrot of TPPA in front of Najib in anticipation of another state visit.

With respect to the Government shutdown, I would be surprised if it ends early. It seems that the Republicans will try to push this right to the end and maybe even trigger a technical default of the US Bonds.

I would guess the reason is for political legitimacy. The last time they folded too easy and now the markets dont take them seriously. In order for you to be taken seriously, you have to force the agenda - so thats why they will push it all the way and beyond the Oct 17th deadline.

In the meantime, the markets aren't pricing this in. Markets do have a short memory.

With respect to the auditors general report, I really do not see what the fuss is all about. There is absolutely nothing new, and in fact, if the wastages were as small as that, then then its a bonus. No point to go hoo-ha over this. The only thing that could ever trigger a change in the way how things are run is if the Ringgit : Sing dollar crosses 3. Till then, it will be this silly game that is not even worth getting worked up about.

Sunday, 29 September 2013

Hishammudin's increasingly desperate campaign . Ali Rustam plays the spoiller

Readers may have been alerted to DSHH's appearance in one of the Wanita UMNO gathering in Johor picked up blogger Another Brick in Wall over here.

I think its unmistakable that Dato Seri Sharizat was wanting nothing to do with DSHH. The body language is unmistakable, and what's worse, this form of interjection into Wanita UMNO politics may backfire spectacularly for DSHH.

First, this reveals a couple of things. Number one, Sharizat does not like DSHH and thinks that DSHH is a goner. After all she was trying as hard as she could not to be associated with DSHH and for DSHH to go quite 'low' in trying to rub shoulders with Kak Jat makes him lose a lot of prestige.

Obviously, she sees him as carrying too much political baggage.  Nobody wants to be associated with the 'ugly boy' of politics and DSHH is right now the person nobody wants to be seen with.

Contrast this with Dato Seri Zahid Hamidi's recent appearance with the WP delegates at the now infamous event which featured Tengku Adnan's call for the delegates to maintain status quo. The Home Minister was completely at ease with his surroundings, and basically displayed something which DSHH lacks which is confidence.

So the smart money is for DSZH to win one of the 3 posts. That leaves two posts left to be contested between the other five contenders. Mathematically, the odds are now of 40% success.

We can perhaps narrow this down with some further analysis. According to the rules, this will be a winner takes all votes for each state - something like the Democratic party convention nomination system. We can firmly say that DSZH will win in Perak, will win in NS, will appear as part of the winning trio  in WP, will win in Selangor, will win in Penang, will win in Pahang, and will appear as part of the winning trio in Kedah. So that is 7 , mathematically enough for him to be assured to be part of the winning trio.

As for Mukhriz, he will win in Kedah, will win in WP, will win in Penang, will get the nominations from Selangor.  Ali Rustam will win in Melaka.

We know that Hishammudin will not be part of the winning trio in any of the areas which suffers from the crime epidemic. On top of that, he also suffers from areas where there is a strong contender because game theory postulates that the decision will go down for them not to elect Hisham since he is the weakest.

Mathematically, it goes like this. There are 2 slots left for grabs. Voting Zahid Hamidi is a no-brainer, because he is assured of getting one of the 3. So lets say in place like Sabah, the smart thing to do is vote Shafie, vote Zahid Hamidi and vote the weakest person in the third. That means voting Ali Rustam or Isa. In Kedah, the same thing will work as well - vote Mukhriz, vote Zahid Hamidi, and vote the weakest. In Perak, that is where it will be interesting. Given the bad blood between the races and DSHH's perceived weakness, he will just be ignored. In WP and Selangor, the same thing, vote Mukhriz, vote Zahid Hamidi and then split the vote between perhaps Shafie or Ali Rustam.

In Melaka, this is where Ali Rustam's grassroots needs to see whether he can pull off what he needs to do. It must be Ali Rustam, Zahid Hamidi and then club a deal with Mukhriz. Say to Mukhriz, if you vote for me in Kedah, I will deliver Melaka.

In either way, it may now be almost impossible to save DSHH's career. If he is down and out,and so is Isa - who is considered as not seriously offering any threat, then the choice narrows to to Shafie Apdal, Mukhriz and Ali Rustam for the last 3.

Wednesday, 18 September 2013

How we defeated Mukhriz

Towards the end of 2008, Khairy was considered a goner.

Tun Dr Mahathir had officially blamed Pak Lah and KJ for handing 5 states to the Opposition and denting BN's 2/3 majority. After being pressured by the Supreme Council, Pak Lah was forced to announce his impending resignation in the next UMNO assembly and the knives were going for KJ.

KJ had just managed to get enough nominations to sneak into the Ketua Pemuda contest and had been virtually written off by all.  Even worse, KJ was almost disqualified from contesting due to money politics allegations. There were even rumours that KJ was going to be hauled up by SPRM.

In terms of the media, KJ was completely sidelined. Utusan was devoting lots of space to Mukhriz and in the blogs, KJ was hammered left, right, up, down and even in a circle. The anti KJ bloggers included whose who in the blog world. It included Rocky Bru, Big Dog, Another Brick in Wall, Husin Lempoyang, Parpukari, Mantra in Deep Thoughts, Syed Outsyed the Box, Duke of UMNO, Cucu Tok Selampit, Jebat Must Die and of course the infamous Piggy Singh.

In the UMNO HQ, the anti KJ forces were lined up from head to toe. Dato Abdul Rauf was one of the main protagonists as well as many others.

And of course Najib too had cut a deal with Tun Dr Mahathir to finish of KJ. Did you not remember Najib giving a massive clue when opening the UMNO Youth assembly with his famous exhortation - "Kita Mahu Pemimpin Yang Berani Berubah" which was seen as slam dunk endorsement of Dato Mukhriz Mahathir.

Azli Shukri - another anti Khairy handiwork

Yet, yet... when the votes were counted  - KJ emerged the victor and Mukhriz was the last.

This point must not be lost on Dato Seri Hishammudin, Dato Seri Shafie Apdal and Dato Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is this - KJ did not win because of luck, but because of a sophisticated counter Mukhriz operation.

We knew where to whack Mukhriz on the blogs and we were the guys in charge of characterizing Mukhriz. We also knew how to play up KJ and how to do a contrast with Mukhriz. We demoralised key staff in the Mukhriz machinery and neutralised emerging threats. In the end we forced the Mukhriz campaign to go down a tract we knew they would end up losing - even though Anas ATM was busy dishing the $$$$.

This was not down to luck and part of a well  planned campaign. Ask any blogger - siapa dia Wenger J Khairy and they will tell you one answer. I don't know. Is he Stephen Doss? Is he some Indian guy. Is he KJ himself? Is he a man? Is the person a lady? Is there one of them? Are there many of them?

Right now, we can tell you - this time round Mukhriz is much tougher. Beating Mukhriz is going to be much more difficult BUT we have the formula. We know where his weak points are and we know how to run a powerful subterfuge campaign. 

The team has since disbanded but some remain. Serious candidates should consider dropping a line to . Remember there is not much time, but with the right strategy, if we did it once, we can do it again.

Tuesday, 10 September 2013

Petronas to drop Brent benchmark. Pemandu what say you?

Sources say that Petronas is expected to drop pricing its Tapis blend to the Brent crude benchmark. As this matter involves the Shadow Banker, we must make a comment.

In a short answer - no, no, no.

The plans to drop Brent based benchmark is foolish. Tapis or even a regional derivative based on Tapis just wont make it. This is because the Brent benchmark is highly established and the spreads between various cracks has both active physical and paper markets.

Malaysia cannot go it alone in the world oil market. It must agree to play by the rules and learn how to trade using the established markets. This is also in line with the Government mission, vision and transformation attempts to make Malaysia into a land of "endless possibilities."

The issue that Petronas faces is very simple - to whom will it sell its Tapis blend? Currently, our major oil export destinations are Australia, India, Thailand and Japan. These traders in these region can engage in sophisticated derivative contracts to hedge our oil price IF AND ONLY IF the Tapis is benchmarked to a liquid market like BFOE.

But it we go and say that we are no longer going to respect BFOE then how are the refiners like Conoco Phillips in Australia going to hedge purchase of Malaysian Tapis blend. Furthermore, will they respect our pricing if there is no strong basis to the price. We cannot arbitrarily say that the price of Tapis blend is US$100 a barrel unless there is  a strong basis to that. That is why benchmarking to BFOE is a must. I can go ahead and hedge the FO crack, the Gas Oil crack, the regrading spread and so many other spreads only if the paper contract and the physical contract are tied to the same basis.

I believe Petronas cannot go and act without first consulting with Pemandu. In the meantime, Pemandu can engage McKinsey and get them to back up what the Shadow Banker says. Petronas must realise that unless you want to see your oil domestically then there is no other option whatsoever than playing the game others play.

I hope Kampong Man takes note.

Monday, 9 September 2013

Ada blogger hentam Tun Faisal.. APA lu ada dengar kah????

Dulu there is the blogger who say I dont support Najib. This blogger support Tun Faisal. I also support Tun Faisal. Then there is other blogger who whack Tun Faisal.

I reproduce here.

"Or does he expects BN to rely on the likes of Tun Faisal and his cybertroopers?"
Link is here

So now that first blogger who support Tun Faisal but say I anti Najib how?

See I backup Tun Faisal maximum at the second blogger blog.

Makcik Annie,
What is wrong with Tun Faisal? He runs a tight ship and his bloggers such as APA are ranked very highly. He is a loyal party man.

Perhaps you should apologise to him.

Thank You and Have a nice day.

I simple. You hentam I sokong. You sokong I hentam.

So APA must now apologise for saying I dont support Najib.

Of course I support Najib.  1Malaysia, BRIM, RM 1 trillion debt - what is there not to support.

Beware of Greeks, even when they bear gifts.

PS: Kampong Man. I tweet Zahid Hamidi. Tell him rakyat need him to stand Timbalan Presiden UMNO. If not we very scared of Gengster.

Saturday, 7 September 2013

Zahid to go for Number 2. Asta la vista TSMY

Its almost certain now that Home Minister Dato Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi will go for the Number 2 slot, following which he will be in pole position to take over from Dato Seri Najib as UMNO President and Prime Minister of Malaysia.

Zahid's popularity has soared on recent months as TSMY's influence has waned on account of his lack of leadership qualities. In contrast, Dato Seri Zahid single handedly won the praise of both UMNO and Non-UMNO citizens with his zero tolerance against subversive elements such as the New Village cineman producers and the Indian Gangsters.

This will mark a major milestone in the political career of the ex one time UMNO Youth Head who was detained by Dr Mahathir's regime in 1998 after the sacking of Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim. Many people had written off Dato Seri Zahid and thought that his days were over. In fact, even so far as during Pak Lah's reign, Dato Seri Zahid was still considered a rank outsider and not part of the inner power base.

But this changed soon after Dato Seri Najib took over from Pak Lah. Dato Seri Zahid was elevated to the position of Minister of Defence and single handedly battled the Sulu army who had threatened to annex Sabah on behalf of the Sultan of Sulu.  He was rewarded for his bravery by being promoted to Minister of Home Affairs where he oversees a vast empire including the police, the RELA and the immigration.

Whereas his predecessor, Dato Seri Hishamuddin was known as Menteri Amaran and basically presided over the biggest increase in crime rates in Malaysia's history, Dato Seri Zahid was a man who brooks no nonsense. He gave the police a free hand to conduct  massive operations against the evil Indian gangsters and was unafraid to ruffle more than a few liberal feathers by banning the Chauvinistic film New Village. As a result, the Indian gangster threat is now receding and the New Village backers and financiers are sitting on well deserved losses.

As a Deputy Prime Minister, Dato Seri Zahid Hamidi will accomplish the dream of many by having a person with a strong backbone in the Government. Dato Seri Zahid Hamidi will also accomplish the dreams of many who want to see an end to Dr Mahathir's influence in Government and will not tolerate nonsense from that old man. In contrast, the current occupier of the seat, Tan Sri Muhiyiddin Yassin is seen as a "budak suruhan" to Dr Mahathir and is incapable of forming any independent opinion or thought process.

Dato Seri Zahid Hamidi has already got the green light from Dato Seri Najib to do Tan Sri Muhiyiddin in. After all, TSMY has failed to pledge loyalty to the President and to kiss his hand and the hand of first lady in act of respect and deference. Instead, he has allowed pro Dr Mahathir to insult the image of YAB PM and YAB First Lady by creating a super-imposed picture of YAB PM over YAB First Lady. This was deemed as an ultimate insult to the President and should have been criticised by TSMY and the blogger arrested for sedition. For this insult, TSMY is now seen to have to pay the price.