Sunday, 29 September 2013

Hishammudin's increasingly desperate campaign . Ali Rustam plays the spoiller

Readers may have been alerted to DSHH's appearance in one of the Wanita UMNO gathering in Johor picked up blogger Another Brick in Wall over here.

I think its unmistakable that Dato Seri Sharizat was wanting nothing to do with DSHH. The body language is unmistakable, and what's worse, this form of interjection into Wanita UMNO politics may backfire spectacularly for DSHH.

First, this reveals a couple of things. Number one, Sharizat does not like DSHH and thinks that DSHH is a goner. After all she was trying as hard as she could not to be associated with DSHH and for DSHH to go quite 'low' in trying to rub shoulders with Kak Jat makes him lose a lot of prestige.

Obviously, she sees him as carrying too much political baggage.  Nobody wants to be associated with the 'ugly boy' of politics and DSHH is right now the person nobody wants to be seen with.

Contrast this with Dato Seri Zahid Hamidi's recent appearance with the WP delegates at the now infamous event which featured Tengku Adnan's call for the delegates to maintain status quo. The Home Minister was completely at ease with his surroundings, and basically displayed something which DSHH lacks which is confidence.

So the smart money is for DSZH to win one of the 3 posts. That leaves two posts left to be contested between the other five contenders. Mathematically, the odds are now of 40% success.

We can perhaps narrow this down with some further analysis. According to the rules, this will be a winner takes all votes for each state - something like the Democratic party convention nomination system. We can firmly say that DSZH will win in Perak, will win in NS, will appear as part of the winning trio  in WP, will win in Selangor, will win in Penang, will win in Pahang, and will appear as part of the winning trio in Kedah. So that is 7 , mathematically enough for him to be assured to be part of the winning trio.

As for Mukhriz, he will win in Kedah, will win in WP, will win in Penang, will get the nominations from Selangor.  Ali Rustam will win in Melaka.

We know that Hishammudin will not be part of the winning trio in any of the areas which suffers from the crime epidemic. On top of that, he also suffers from areas where there is a strong contender because game theory postulates that the decision will go down for them not to elect Hisham since he is the weakest.

Mathematically, it goes like this. There are 2 slots left for grabs. Voting Zahid Hamidi is a no-brainer, because he is assured of getting one of the 3. So lets say in place like Sabah, the smart thing to do is vote Shafie, vote Zahid Hamidi and vote the weakest person in the third. That means voting Ali Rustam or Isa. In Kedah, the same thing will work as well - vote Mukhriz, vote Zahid Hamidi, and vote the weakest. In Perak, that is where it will be interesting. Given the bad blood between the races and DSHH's perceived weakness, he will just be ignored. In WP and Selangor, the same thing, vote Mukhriz, vote Zahid Hamidi and then split the vote between perhaps Shafie or Ali Rustam.

In Melaka, this is where Ali Rustam's grassroots needs to see whether he can pull off what he needs to do. It must be Ali Rustam, Zahid Hamidi and then club a deal with Mukhriz. Say to Mukhriz, if you vote for me in Kedah, I will deliver Melaka.

In either way, it may now be almost impossible to save DSHH's career. If he is down and out,and so is Isa - who is considered as not seriously offering any threat, then the choice narrows to to Shafie Apdal, Mukhriz and Ali Rustam for the last 3.


Kampong man said...


1.Contrary to your prediction,after consulting my kampong bomoh and Bangsar Feng Shui master this is going to be the result for the VPs.

Zahid will be the strongest.DSHH will be among the three.The third shall be between Shafie and Mukriz.Isa Samad and Ali Rustam will not make it.They are old horses.

2.DSHH has held many ministerial portfolios. In UMNO he is a senior and more of a moderate man well suited to handle multiracial Malaysia hence will be well accepted and a good candidate.He has long headed the Pemuda which is advantageous.

3.The minus thingy about Mukhriz is that he has yet to prove that he is a good leader and a good MB for Kedah and still lack experience.He has never hold full ministerial position.Just because Outsyedthebox has pushed for Mukhriz does not mean that Mukhriz will be the favourite, please lah.After all Tuan Syed fail to get Najib challanged after so much csmpaign not favoring Najib in his blog .Padan muka.

Do not be surprised if the 150K members from the 191 divisions will prefer to maintain the STAUS QUO on the basis of those three seniority.Why not?.

I am for the STATUS QUO.Don't forget even that less democratic and supposedly multiracial DAP recent election proved that members still prefer to maintain status quo as not to rock the boat.Proven in DAP maaa....
Only one fake Malay Zairil made it to the CEC and this time they(DAP) count it right.The other Malays can go and fly kites. Multiracialism at play ?? .poodah...

The only party that is democratic for all other political parties to follow and for better sampling is the new and transformed UMNO election process way of course.UMNO/BN shall remain a dominant political party of choice well suited for our country Malaysia because UMNO practise MODERATION and is willing to share power.Other parties are just so so. Disagree still ?.Lets hear from you guys.Cheers.


Shadow Banker said...

I think you fail to consider the negative publicity surrounding DSHH. The man is instantly known for the failures as Home Minister.

The thing about DSHH is where he is going to pick up the nominations. Read carefully how Johor wanita spoke about DSHH. Its quite loaded and packs a punch