Front running UMNO's party election - Will Mukhriz aim for No 2?

The UMNO party election is still several weeks away but there is now a perceptible feeling that something major is on the way.

Already, there has been a slow undercurrent gathering against the incumbents. Eventhough most state liason committees have set the resolution for a "no-contest" for the top 2 posts, there has been increasing chatter that both the Number One and Number Two post will be contested.

The feelers have already been sent out and Tun Dr Mahathir is busy orchestrating his final move before the inevitable happens. He knows that his son needs to fight this election out and can either aim for a Vice Presidents post or even the Deputy Presidents post.

The calculation for the Vice Presidents post is quite difficult. It has often attracted too many heavyweights and Mukhriz's credentials as Menteri Besar of Kedah may cause him to be stuck with just the Kedah vote. Furthermore, this will see big wigs like Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Hishammudin Hussein Onn, Musa Aman and other senior Cabinet ministers make a play. Lastly of course, the post of Vice President is rather ceremonial and does not add anything to Mukhriz's prestige.

Like it or not, Mukhriz has to aim for the No 2. That may be a bold gamble but he has shown himself capable of taking on gambles and winning. The question remains whether Mukhriz should take on Muhiyiddin or whether a Mukhriz - Muhiyiddin combination should take on Najib - Zahid for the top leadership slot?

Off hand, Mukhriz will stand a better chance against Muhiyiddin on a one-on-one contest. Actually TSMY's grassroots support is virtually non-existent and the only reason he became Deputy Prime Minister was because of the tacit support by Najib and Dr Mahathir against lesser opponents like Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib.  So I would rate Mukhriz to prevail against TSMY quite easily.

Mukhriz greatest asset is that he controls the social media. As this is going to be a mass market campaign, he who controls the media will win. And in the same breath, I'm confident of Dato Razali prevailing against Khairy should he decide to go for the UMNO Youths post. Khairy has not learnt to develop his own media machinery to take on the powerful social media assets assailed against him and still prefers to network through the political "operatives" method. This works well if its 2,500 plus delegates deciding on your future. Works like crap if your up against a nationwide election.

Perhaps if TSMY had not already realized it, he better now.  Tun Dr Mahathir is never one to take the slow way in getting things done. He will go for the jugular and since TSMY lacks the gumption to take on his boss, Tun will then turn his guns on TSMY.  And in return for Tun not openly attacking the PM, Dato Seri Najib will give the green light and for this and TSMY will be toast. Funny isn't it, when for so long it was TSMY who was threatening to do a number on his boss, but ends up being 'taken out' in a classic UMNO style shadow politics plot.